Copy and Paste job with some facts for you: This is a selection by process of elimination using various trends occuring through the history of the race (within the last 40 years as a reasonable maximum, mostly shorter but not too short for accuracy if possible). I've left odds and weight until the last two rounds as these are probably the most influential in reality, and with a smaller sample to choose I can analyse a bit better.
MID LIFE CRISIS 6 year olds haven't won since 1922. 7 year olds haven't won since 1940. 8 year olds only 1 win in last 17 years. 13 year olds only 2 wins in entire history and none have placed since 1969.
The stats do not look good for 6, 7, 8 & 13 year olds so they are our first elimination batch.
HORSES ELIMINATED:- What A Friend, Majestic Concorde, Calgary Bay, Becauseicouldntsee, Quinz, Quobilet, King Fontaine, Hello Bud & Our Monty, Belona Gale, Le Beau Bai, Sagalryique, Galant Nuit, Junior, I'moncloudnine & Pomme Tiepy
HOME COMFORTS French Breds only 1 win in last 100 years.
Mon Mome was the only horse to do it in the last 100 years. Exception that proves the rule? Elimination batch number two
HORSES ELIMINATED:- Or Noir De Somoza, Backstage, Ornais, Piraya, That's Rythym, Royal Rosa & Merigo
GO THE DISTANCE Every winner since 1970 had previously won at 3m+ distance
Proven stayer's are required for this marathon trip.
MATCH FIT Last 28 winners of race had all run in the 50 days previous
Can't get away with a lack of race sharpness in this slog
HORSES ELIMINATED:- The Tother One, Grand Slam Hero & State Of Play
COMES HIGHLY RATED Last 10 winners were all officially rated 136+
Got to be good to be great it seems. (I've taken any future ratings as offical too).
HORSES ELIMINATED:- Roll Along, Can't Buy Time, Character Building, Always Waining, Golden Kite, Giles Cross, Ambobo, Toby Jug, Ballyfitz, Treacle & Regal Heights
STEADY LEGS Last 10 winners had never fallen twice in their career
Proven jumpers are best for these unforgiving fences.
HORSES ELIMINATED:- Big Fella Thanks, Niche Market, Chief Dan George, Silver By Nature, Northern Alliance, Arbor Supreme & The Sawyer
CHASE THE EXPERIENCE Last 10 winners have all previously raced in 10+ chases
Again, they've got to prove an old hand at getting over the big ones.
HORSES ELIMINATED:- The Midnight Club, Surface To Air & Skippers Brig
BIG FIELD EARNERS Last 10 winners previously won a race with 12+ and worth £17k+
Lone Rangers are no use here, they need to have navigated a crowd to get the big prize.
HORSES ELIMINATED:- Killyglen
FAMILIAR FENCES 7 out of last 9 winners have all previously raced at Aintree
Need to know whats on the otherside. Jumping into the unknown rarely works out good.
HORSES ELIMINATED:- Oscar Time, West End Rocker, Bluesea Cracker & Saddlers Storm.
STATUS CHECKThis now leaves us with just 5 horses remaining; Don't Push It, Tidal Bay, Vic Venturi, Ballabriggs and Comply Or Die. Now on to odds and then finally weight. These two may or may not have bearing with odds not being defining and weight slowly becoming less of an issue, which is why I wanted to give the full list of remaining horses before going further.
ODD'S ARE GOOD 31 out of 42 winners were priced 16/1 or lower
Clearly the bookies know which horses have the best chance, but there's still good value for a place with these horses.
HORSES ELIMINATED:- Tidal Bay, Vic Venturi, Comply Or Die
ONE ON ONE We are now down to 2 horses; last years winner Don't Push It and Ballabriggs.
With Don't Push It needing to achieve the same seemngly impossible feat as Red Rum by winning of top weight, I'll pump for BALLABRIGGS and hope D.McCain Jnr can continue his family's good record here.
[quote="Wxm1872"]Copy and Paste job with some facts for you: This is a selection by process of elimination using various trends occuring through the history of the race (within the last 40 years as a reasonable maximum, mostly shorter but not too short for accuracy if possible). I've left odds and weight until the last two rounds as these are probably the most influential in reality, and with a smaller sample to choose I can analyse a bit better.
MID LIFE CRISIS 6 year olds haven't won since 1922. 7 year olds haven't won since 1940. 8 year olds only 1 win in last 17 years. 13 year olds only 2 wins in entire history and none have placed since 1969.
The stats do not look good for 6, 7, 8 & 13 year olds so they are our first elimination batch.
HORSES ELIMINATED:- What A Friend, Majestic Concorde, Calgary Bay, Becauseicouldntsee, Quinz, Quobilet, King Fontaine, Hello Bud & Our Monty, Belona Gale, Le Beau Bai, Sagalryique, Galant Nuit, Junior, I'moncloudnine & Pomme Tiepy
HOME COMFORTS French Breds only 1 win in last 100 years.
Mon Mome was the only horse to do it in the last 100 years. Exception that proves the rule? Elimination batch number two
HORSES ELIMINATED:- Or Noir De Somoza, Backstage, Ornais, Piraya, That's Rythym, Royal Rosa & Merigo
GO THE DISTANCE Every winner since 1970 had previously won at 3m+ distance
Proven stayer's are required for this marathon trip.
MATCH FIT Last 28 winners of race had all run in the 50 days previous
Can't get away with a lack of race sharpness in this slog
HORSES ELIMINATED:- The Tother One, Grand Slam Hero & State Of Play
COMES HIGHLY RATED Last 10 winners were all officially rated 136+
Got to be good to be great it seems. (I've taken any future ratings as offical too).
HORSES ELIMINATED:- Roll Along, Can't Buy Time, Character Building, Always Waining, Golden Kite, Giles Cross, Ambobo, Toby Jug, Ballyfitz, Treacle & Regal Heights
STEADY LEGS Last 10 winners had never fallen twice in their career
Proven jumpers are best for these unforgiving fences.
HORSES ELIMINATED:- Big Fella Thanks, Niche Market, Chief Dan George, Silver By Nature, Northern Alliance, Arbor Supreme & The Sawyer
CHASE THE EXPERIENCE Last 10 winners have all previously raced in 10+ chases
Again, they've got to prove an old hand at getting over the big ones.
HORSES ELIMINATED:- The Midnight Club, Surface To Air & Skippers Brig
BIG FIELD EARNERS Last 10 winners previously won a race with 12+ and worth £17k+
Lone Rangers are no use here, they need to have navigated a crowd to get the big prize.
HORSES ELIMINATED:- Killyglen
FAMILIAR FENCES 7 out of last 9 winners have all previously raced at Aintree
Need to know whats on the otherside. Jumping into the unknown rarely works out good.
HORSES ELIMINATED:- Oscar Time, West End Rocker, Bluesea Cracker & Saddlers Storm.
STATUS CHECKThis now leaves us with just 5 horses remaining; Don't Push It, Tidal Bay, Vic Venturi, Ballabriggs and Comply Or Die. Now on to odds and then finally weight. These two may or may not have bearing with odds not being defining and weight slowly becoming less of an issue, which is why I wanted to give the full list of remaining horses before going further.
ODD'S ARE GOOD 31 out of 42 winners were priced 16/1 or lower
Clearly the bookies know which horses have the best chance, but there's still good value for a place with these horses.
HORSES ELIMINATED:- Tidal Bay, Vic Venturi, Comply Or Die
ONE ON ONE We are now down to 2 horses; last years winner Don't Push It and Ballabriggs.
With Don't Push It needing to achieve the same seemngly impossible feat as Red Rum by winning of top weight, I'll pump for BALLABRIGGS and hope D.McCain Jnr can continue his family's good record here.
[/quote]
could you do this for every race and meeting please my good man
I'm on Hello Bud, What A Friend & The Midnight Club all £5 e/w. I also picked 4 horses in our work sweepsatke @ £5 each - can't even remember which i picked & got a pile of daft trebles on the football - 3 homes, 3 aways & 3 draws (i pick the same numbers on the coupon every week)
"If you have friends like mine, raise your glasses. If you don't have friends like mine, raise your standards."
87.50 for the winner, about 120 up overall today and I'm waiting for newcastle result in the football tomorrow to take that to 340. My mucka rounded off about £450 up and my wife after asking me to pick who I thought would win placed her bet and won.............£15, she put a fucking £1 on it, women
Wifes at Wolverhampton tonight on a hen do', give her a list of possible winners but to go e/w, she's won the first 3 so far, 4 to go, so no doubt if she has put money down I'll be getting raped at around 2am when she's bought twice as many drinks as she normally would......... bonus
[quote="The Individual"]Wifes at Wolverhampton tonight on a hen do', give her a list of possible winners but to go e/w, she's won the first 3 so far, 4 to go, so no doubt if she has put money down I'll be getting raped at around 2am when she's bought twice as many drinks as she normally would......... bonus [/quote]
nowt finer than a pissed up horny wife coming in after a night out...go on my son!!
[quote="wadey"][quote="The Individual"]Wifes at Wolverhampton tonight on a hen do', give her a list of possible winners but to go e/w, she's won the first 3 so far, 4 to go, so no doubt if she has put money down I'll be getting raped at around 2am when she's bought twice as many drinks as she normally would......... bonus [/quote]
nowt finer than a pissed up horny wife coming in after a night out...go on my son!![/quote]
Yeah sitting here fingers crossed the rest come in
[quote="The Individual"][quote="wadey"][quote="The Individual"]Wifes at Wolverhampton tonight on a hen do', give her a list of possible winners but to go e/w, she's won the first 3 so far, 4 to go, so no doubt if she has put money down I'll be getting raped at around 2am when she's bought twice as many drinks as she normally would......... bonus [/quote]
nowt finer than a pissed up horny wife coming in after a night out...go on my son!![/quote]
Yeah sitting here fingers crossed the rest come in [/quote]
ive got mine crossed for ya too!! ....cock like a blind cobler's thumb in the morning !!!lol
[quote="wadey"][quote="The Individual"][quote="wadey"][quote="The Individual"]Wifes at Wolverhampton tonight on a hen do', give her a list of possible winners but to go e/w, she's won the first 3 so far, 4 to go, so no doubt if she has put money down I'll be getting raped at around 2am when she's bought twice as many drinks as she normally would......... bonus [/quote]
nowt finer than a pissed up horny wife coming in after a night out...go on my son!![/quote]
Yeah sitting here fingers crossed the rest come in [/quote]
ive got mine crossed for ya too!! ....cock like a blind cobler's thumb in the morning !!!lol[/quote]
She's just lost the 19:50 unfortunately, I'll probably just have a wank to be honest and pretend I'm heavily sleeping
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Fri Apr 08, 2011 4:59 pm
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